Despite an increase in the share of commercial investments to 42% in Q1 2024 from 39% a year earlier, they declined by 52% in value terms. Similarly, the share of residential investments also increased to 41% in Q1 2024 from 27% in Q1 2023. However, investments declined by 33% annually in value terms. Investments significantly decreased by 73% in the industrial and warehousing sector in Q1 2024 over the previous year.
2024 is anticipated to be a more dynamic year for the both the Asia Pacific real estate markets as well as capital in the region remaining the dominant investor in global real estate. The ability to act quickly, dig deeply into markets and sectors to identify value, and forge productive partnerships will be key to making the most of the region’s diversity and increased opportunity, claims a report by Colliers.
Ram Kirpal is a construction worker in Noida. However, this daily wage earner is not a regular employee or even contractual worker with any real estate company or contractor. He goes back to his native place, Purnea in Bihar, on each harvest season and agriculture continues to be his main occupation. He works on construction sites in Noida only when there is no agricultural work back home. He is part of the bigger problem that the Indian real estate faces – labour shortage! A Track2Realty report.
Within the built environment of the Indian real estate there is still denial about too many parallels between the Indian and the Chinese real estate. Many even believe that the Indian economy is not that real estate dependent as the Chinese economy. Even when admitting the crisis in Indian real estate, it is diplomatically wrapped in the developer’s justification of not learning any lessons on part of the Indian developers.
There are multiple factors why the home sales in monsoons are subdued. One obvious reason is that the Indians traditionally don’t make any high value purchases after Akshay Tirtiya and before Ganesh Chaturthi. Since a home is the most emotional & aspirational product; is life’s biggest purchase; and is in most of the case for the lifetime; the Indians prefer to wait till the beginning of the festive season. Inauspicious period of Shraddh and Pitripaksh also falls during the monsoon season, where the traditional belief is that any new purchase will invite the curse of the ancestors.
Until the lion learns how to write, every story will glorify the hunter, says an African Proverb. Research report by various industry stakeholders try best to paint a rosy picture; force feed the collective consciousness that the real estate market is on its way to historic high in the year 2021. But the mood of the nation is juxtaposed to the orchestrated euphoria and Track2Realty Investment survey finds that the real estate has slipped as the 3rd choice for a vast majority of the Indians, with C-SAT Score (Consumer Satisfaction Score) all time low.
Across the built environment of the Indian real estate the two question that are on everyone’s lips is about the recovery timelines and segment to recover first. Track2Realty finds this uncertainty about the possible recovery, or rather the lack of it, has also kept the fence sitting home buyers on the edge.
Much before the outbreak of pandemic Coronavirus, the Indian real estate sector battling with the consistent slowdown was looking up to the turnaround catalyst. While the success of REIT had given it a glimmer of hope, the fund managers had their eyes set on a segment that has the potential to not just spread across the country but give a piggy ride to other segments as well, most notably to the housing. Track2Realty finds the warehousing & logistics to emerge as the mainstream real estate in the last few years.
The economists and the real estate analysts are unanimous over the inevitability of the real estate recovery in India. What is nevertheless being debated is when will the sector revive to its normal course of business. What is even more important is to assess what would be the shape of the recovery. In classical economic definition, three of the commonly used recovery shapes are V, U & L shapes. V-Shaped is a strong recovery after the debacle, U-Shaped is a slower and long-drawn recovery, while an L-Shaped aftermath is where the previous peak is not recovered.
Beyond the pessimism & optimism and, to some extent, more than expected recovery post the Covid-19 lockdown, the fact remains that 2020 has been by and large the most unforgettable year for the economy in general and the real estate market in particular. The old timers in the business even maintain that this has been even worse year than the global economic collapse after the Lehman crisis in 2008.