Despite an increase in the share of commercial investments to 42% in Q1 2024 from 39% a year earlier, they declined by 52% in value terms. Similarly, the share of residential investments also increased to 41% in Q1 2024 from 27% in Q1 2023. However, investments declined by 33% annually in value terms. Investments significantly decreased by 73% in the industrial and warehousing sector in Q1 2024 over the previous year.
Institutional investments in Indian real estate sector touched USD 1.0 billion in the first quarter of 2024, signalling a steady and positive start to the year. While this was a 40% drop compared to the same period last year, India’s real estate investments showed improvement on a sequential basis registering 21% QoQ rise. Foreign investments retained their dominance, forming 55% of the total inflows during the quarter. Domestic investments too witnessed a notable rise at 15% YoY in Q1 2024. The share of domestic inflows in overall institutional investments continued to rise to 45% in Q1 2024, compared to 24% in Q1 2023.
2024 is anticipated to be a more dynamic year for the both the Asia Pacific real estate markets as well as capital in the region remaining the dominant investor in global real estate. The ability to act quickly, dig deeply into markets and sectors to identify value, and forge productive partnerships will be key to making the most of the region’s diversity and increased opportunity, claims a report by Colliers.
Ram Kirpal is a construction worker in Noida. However, this daily wage earner is not a regular employee or even contractual worker with any real estate company or contractor. He goes back to his native place, Purnea in Bihar, on each harvest season and agriculture continues to be his main occupation. He works on construction sites in Noida only when there is no agricultural work back home. He is part of the bigger problem that the Indian real estate faces – labour shortage! A Track2Realty report.
At the beginning of 2024, as the Indian real estate stakeholders (self-styled industry experts within the realty media landscape) are yet again influence peddling their bullish narrative, the reality check by Track2Realty clearly finds that the sales growth post-Covid has neither been broad based nor democratic. Real estate is yet again emerging as a parking lot of big money post the pandemic, as visible with the off-take of luxury & super luxury despite the stagnant job growth and wage growth.
Within the built environment of the Indian real estate there is still denial about too many parallels between the Indian and the Chinese real estate. Many even believe that the Indian economy is not that real estate dependent as the Chinese economy. Even when admitting the crisis in Indian real estate, it is diplomatically wrapped in the developer’s justification of not learning any lessons on part of the Indian developers.
It is the story of a debt ridden real estate company that is financially overleveraged; gone beyond execution capabilities; has multi-city penetration; is into multiple businesses; and the promoters are just delaying the inevitable. The developer that you instantly recall is China’s Evergrande. It’s the talk of the town across the built environment of global real estate today. But wait! Has India not been witness to its own Evergrande moment (though on a smaller scale) in the past? Track2Realty speaks to cross section of industry analysts.
Across the built environment of the Indian real estate the two question that are on everyone’s lips is about the recovery timelines and segment to recover first. Track2Realty finds this uncertainty about the possible recovery, or rather the lack of it, has also kept the fence sitting home buyers on the edge.
Much before the outbreak of pandemic Coronavirus, the Indian real estate sector battling with the consistent slowdown was looking up to the turnaround catalyst. While the success of REIT had given it a glimmer of hope, the fund managers had their eyes set on a segment that has the potential to not just spread across the country but give a piggy ride to other segments as well, most notably to the housing. Track2Realty finds the warehousing & logistics to emerge as the mainstream real estate in the last few years.
The economists and the real estate analysts are unanimous over the inevitability of the real estate recovery in India. What is nevertheless being debated is when will the sector revive to its normal course of business. What is even more important is to assess what would be the shape of the recovery. In classical economic definition, three of the commonly used recovery shapes are V, U & L shapes. V-Shaped is a strong recovery after the debacle, U-Shaped is a slower and long-drawn recovery, while an L-Shaped aftermath is where the previous peak is not recovered.